Tensions have dramatically escalated between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in late April 2025. India has responded by launching missile strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, triggering fears of a wider military confrontation.
The Trigger: Pahalgam Attack and India’s Response
The recent flare-up was ignited by an attack on 22 April 2025 in Pahalgam, a town in Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 people, mostly Indian civilians. India swiftly blamed Pakistan for backing the massacre. An entity called the Resistance Front (TRF) initially claimed responsibility via Telegram but later denied involvement. India, however, claimed the TRF is linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Council-sanctioned terrorist group based in Pakistan.
In response, India launched “Operation Sindoor” overnight, conducting missile strikes described as “precision strikes at terrorist camps” inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Indian officials stated the operation targeted “terrorist infrastructure” across at least nine target locations. India’s Ministry of Defense characterized the strikes as “focused, measured, and non-escalatory,” aimed solely at terrorist infrastructure like training camps and avoiding Pakistani military or government facilities. Indian officials claimed they used precision capabilities to prevent collateral damage and executed the operations from Indian territory using systems including drones. The Indian Foreign Secretary described the strikes as preemptive action following information about potential new attacks and Pakistan’s alleged failure to act against terrorist infrastructure. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly monitored the operation.
Pakistan’s Reaction and Counterclaims
Pakistan vehemently condemned the Indian strikes, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif calling them an “act of war” and stating Pakistan had every right to give a robust response. Pakistan reported that Indian missiles struck six cities, including four in Punjab province and two in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. While India claimed to target militant infrastructure, Pakistan denied this, alleging the strikes hit civilian areas. Pakistani officials reported multiple civilian casualties, with initial reports stating at least eight people killed and over 30 injured. Later reports from Pakistan’s military spokesperson indicated at least 26 killed in the missile strikes, and a total of 31 civilians killed when including those along the Line of Control (LoC). Specific civilian targets reported by Pakistan included a mosque compound in Ahmedpur Sharqia near Bahawalpur where five people died, and two mosques destroyed in Muzaffarabad and Kotli. One official stated a missile hit a mosque in Bahawalpur, killing 13, including women and children, and another hit a mosque in Muridke.
Pakistan claimed its military shot down two Indian air force jets, with further claims reporting five Indian planes downed, including three Rafales. Pakistan’s military spokesperson stated the jets were downed after the Indian airstrikes. However, the same official also claimed India fired missiles from within Indian territory and that no Indian aircraft entered Pakistani airspace, creating a discrepancy regarding the alleged shoot-downs. Beyond the strikes, multiple exchanges of fire have occurred across the Line of Control that separates Indian-administered Kashmir from Pakistan-administered Kashmir. These clashes have also resulted in casualties. Pakistani shelling reportedly killed at least three civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir, according to the Indian army. Indian police and medics reported at least seven civilians killed and 30 wounded from Pakistani shelling along the LoC.
On the Ground and Diplomatic Fallout
The heightened tensions have led to immediate disruption. Airports in Srinagar, Kashmir’s capital, have been closed to civilian flights, and airspace has been shut down, affecting international travel. Qatar Airways suspended flights to Pakistan. Hospitals in Pakistan-administered Kashmir declared a state of emergency to prepare for casualties. Schools were closed in Pakistan’s Punjab province and in Indian-controlled Kashmir. India announced security drills, including evacuation practices, were taking place in several states.
Diplomatically, relations have further strained. India had already imposed punitive measures following the Pahalgam attack, including suspending its participation in the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and planning to stop water flow to Pakistan1. India also cancelled certain visas for Pakistani nationals, closed the Attari border crossing, and declared military advisors in Pakistan’s High Commission in New Delhi as persona non grata. Pakistan summoned India’s chargé d’affaires to lodge a strong protest against the strikes and warned that India’s actions violated Pakistan’s sovereignty and threatened regional peace. Pakistan also informed the UN Security Council of the attacks and reserved the right to respond.
International Response and Calls for Restraint
The international community has voiced concern and called for de-escalation. The UN Security Council met in closed consultations on 5 May 2025 at Pakistan’s request to discuss “The India-Pakistan question”. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, called for “restraint” from both countries, emphasizing that “the world cannot afford a military confrontation”. US President Donald Trump called the rising tensions a “shame” and hoped the clashes would end “very quickly”. The UAE foreign minister also urged de-escalation. China called for restraint from both sides, expressed regret over India’s actions, and advised against actions that would further complicate the situation. International leaders and experts are urging diplomatic solutions and de-escalation.
The Decades-Long Conflict: History and Core Issues
The current crisis is rooted in the long-standing dispute over Jammu and Kashmir, a conflict that dates back to the partition of British India in 1947. Both India and Pakistan claim the entirety of the Kashmir region, although they each administer only parts of it, with China controlling some areas as well. The two nations have fought four conventional wars over the region: in 1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999, alongside numerous skirmishes. Three of these wars were fought directly over Kashmir. A UN-brokered ceasefire in 1949 divided Kashmir, leading to the establishment of the Line of Control (LoC) in 1972, a heavily fortified de facto border. A UN-sponsored plebiscite to determine the region’s future, promised after the first war, has never been held.
The conflict has been marked by cycles of violence, including a rebellion against Indian rule launched by Kashmiri dissidents with support from Pakistan in 1989. Terrorist attacks have frequently served as triggers for escalation. Notable instances include the 2001 attack on the Indian parliament which led to a ten-month military standoff, and the 2019 Pulwama attack followed by India’s Balakot airstrike. India has developed a strategy of kinetic response to attacks perceived to have direct Pakistani involvement, sometimes targeting inside Pakistan itself. Pakistan supports Kashmir’s secessionist movement, viewing the region as its “jugular vein”.
India’s decision in August 2019 to revoke Article 370, which granted semi-autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, further heightened tensions. India considers this an internal sovereign matter, while Pakistan argues it violates UN Security Council resolutions. Pakistan has also accused India of sponsoring terrorist groups, such as the Balochistan Liberation Army, from camps in Afghanistan.
The most critical factor in the India-Pakistan conflict is that both nations are nuclear-armed powers. The potential consequences of an escalation, accidental or intentional, are immense and “simply incalculable”. A hypothetical nuclear war scenario between the two countries could result in 50 to 125 million direct deaths and cause widespread global environmental devastation, potentially leading to famine for millions or billions worldwide due to impacts on agriculture. Pakistan has explicitly stated its willingness to use the full spectrum of power, both conventional and nuclear, in case of war. Ordinary Kashmiris consistently bear the brunt of these tensions, facing crackdowns by Indian security forces including mass surveillance, home demolitions, cordon and search operations, and detentions. They also face harassment and physical assaults in retaliation for attacks.
Uncertain Future
As the situation remains volatile, what comes next will depend heavily on how Pakistan responds to the Indian strikes. While experts note India’s strikes follow a predictable pattern aimed at limiting escalation, Pakistan’s strong rhetoric and claims of casualties signal a potential for further action. International efforts are focused on promoting dialogue and de-escalation to prevent a full-blown conflict between the two nuclear powers
